2008arXiv (Cornell University)Open access

Existence, uniqueness and multiplicity of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

Dimitri Breda, Daniela Visetti

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Abstract

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. Conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection are obtained that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by extra-mortality.

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We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. Conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection are obtained that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by extra-mortality.

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Available abstract

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. Conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection are obtained that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by extra-mortality.

Key concepts: Uniqueness, Endemic disease, Epidemic model, Stability (learning theory), Multiplicity (mathematics), Population, Mathematical economics, Mathematics

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