How Big is Too Big for Hubs: Marginal Profitability in Hub-and-Spoke Networks

Increasing the scale of hub operations at major airports has led to concerns about congestion at excessively large hubs. In this paper, we estimate the marginal cost of adding spokes to an existing hub network. We observe entry/non-entry decisions on potential spokes from existing hubs, and estimate both a variable profit function for providing service in markets using that spoke as well as the fixed costs of providing service to the spoke. We let the fixed costs depend upon the scale of operations at the hub, and find the hub size at which spoke service costs are minimized.