MACROTHEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION

Overall balance (Percent of GDP) World -2.2 -7.4 -6.0 -4.6 -4.2 -3.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Advanced economies -3.5 -8.9 -7.8 -6.6 -5.9 -4.9 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 United States -6.7 -13.3 -11.2 -10.1 -8.7 -7.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 Euro area -2.1 -6.4 -6.2 -4.1 -3.3 -2.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1 France -3.3 -7.6 -7.1 -5.2 -4.7 -3.5 0.1 -0.1 0.4 Germany -0.1 -3.2 -4.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 Greece -9.9 -15.6 -10.5 -9.1 -7.5 -4.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 Ireland -7.3 -13.9 -30.9 -12.8 -8.3 -7.5 -2.9 0.2 -0.2 Italy -2.7 -5.4 -4.5 -3.8 -2.7 -1.8 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Portugal -3.7 -10.2 -9.8 -4.2 -5.0 -4.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 Spain -4.2 -11.2 -9.4 -8.9 -7.0 -5.7 -0.5 -1.0 0.0 Japan -4.1 -10.4 -9.4 -9.8 -10.0 -9.1 0.3 0.0 -0.3 United Kingdom -5.1 -10.4 -9.9 -8.5 -8.2 -7.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 Canada -0.4 -4.9 -5.6 -4.4 -3.8 -3.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Others 2.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Emerging markets 0.0 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 0.0 -0.2 0.0 Asia -2.3 -4.2 -3.0 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.2China -0.7 -3.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 India -8.7 -10.0 -9.4 -9.0 -9.5 -9.1 -0.3 -1.2 -0.9 Europe 0.6 -6.2 -4.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 Russian Federation 4.9 -6.3 -3.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.6 Turkey -2.4 -5.6 -2.7 -0.2 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 Latin America -0.7 -3.5 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 Brazil -1.3 -3.0 -2.7 -2.6 -2.1 -1.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 Mexico -1.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.4 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle East and North Africa -4.9 -5.4 -6.7 -8.9 -9.5 -8.3 -0.1 -1.0 -1.4South Africa -0.5 -5.3 -4.8 -4.6 -5.0 -4.7 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 Low-income countries -0.3 -3.9 -2.0 -1.9 -3.4 -3.1 0.2 -0.7 -0.9 Oil producers 7.4 -2.4 -0.2 3.4 2.9 2.3 0.1 -0.8 -0.4 Cyclically adjusted balance (Percent of potential GDP) Advanced economies -3.8 -6.2 -6.3 -5.5 -4.8 -3.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 United States 1 -5.5 -8.4 -8.7 -7.9 -6.8 -5.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 Euro area -3.0 -4.5 -4.7 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 France -3.1 -5.1 -5.1 -3.9 -3.2 -2.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 Germany -1.3 -1.3 -3.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 Greece -13.9 -18.6 -12.1 -8.3 -4.5 -1.1 -1.5 0.1 1.7 Ireland 1 -11.9 -11.0 -9.3 -7.7 -6.1 -5.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Italy -3.3 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.1 Portugal -4.2 -9.3 -9.7 -3.4 -3.1 -2.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 Spain -5.3 -9.7 -7.6 -7.3 -4.6 -3.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.4 Japan -3.5 -7.4 -7.9 -8.3 -9.1 -8.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 United Kingdom -7.2 -9.7 -8.5 -6.6 -5.4 -4.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 Canada -0.5 -3.2 -4.5 -3.7 -3.1 -2.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 Others 0.1 -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 Emerging markets -1.7 -3.6 -2.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1 Asia -2.4 -3.9 -2.6 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.2China -0.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 India -10.6 -10.7 -10.2 -9.9 -10.2 -9.6 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 Europe -0.4 -3.9 -3.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 Russian Federation 3.9 -3.2 -1.8 2.0 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 Turkey -2.8 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9 -2.0 -1.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 Latin America -1.6 -2.6 -3.1 -2.8 -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 0.1 0.5 Brazil -2.1 -2.2 -3.3 -2.9 -1.7 -1.3 -0.2 0.4 1.0 Mexico -1.3 -3.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.3 -2.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 South Africa -2.3 -5.1 -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 -4.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 Memorandum items: World growth (percent) 2.8 -0.6 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections.Note: All fiscal data country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.Projections are based on IMF staff assessment of current policies.1 Excluding financial sector support.