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Modeling and Prediction of Foreign Currency Exchange Markets

Joarder Kamruzzaman, Ruhul Sarker, Rezaul Begg

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Abstract

In today’s global market economy, currency exchange rates play a vital role in national economy of the trading nations. In this chapter, we present an overview of neural network-based forecasting models for foreign currency exchange (forex) rates. To demonstrate the suitability of neural network in forex forecasting, a case study on the forex rates of six different currencies against the Australian dollar is presented. We used three different learning algorithms in this case study, and a comparison based on several performance metrics and trading profitability is provided. Future research direction for enhancement of neural network models is also discussed.

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What this paper is about

In today’s global market economy, currency exchange rates play a vital role in national economy of the trading nations. In this chapter, we present an overview of neural network-based forecasting models for foreign currency exchange (forex) rates. To demonstrate the suitability of neural network in forex forecasting, a case study on the forex rates of six different currencies against the Australian dollar is presented. We used three different learning algorithms in this case study, and a comparison based on several performance metrics and trading profitability is provided. Future research direction for enhancement of neural network models is also discussed.

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Available abstract

In today’s global market economy, currency exchange rates play a vital role in national economy of the trading nations. In this chapter, we present an overview of neural network-based forecasting models for foreign currency exchange (forex) rates. To demonstrate the suitability of neural network in forex forecasting, a case study on the forex rates of six different currencies against the Australian dollar is presented. We used three different learning algorithms in this case study, and a comparison based on several performance metrics and trading profitability is provided. Future research direction for enhancement of neural network models is also discussed.

Key concepts: Foreign exchange market, Currency, Liberian dollar, Foreign exchange, Profitability index, Exchange rate, Us dollar, Artificial neural network

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