World Phosphate Fertilizer Supply‐Demand Outlook

The fertilizer industry is cyclical in nature. It supplies a basic input to agriculture, which continually swings from undersupply to oversupply. Thus, the phosphorus (P) fertilizer industry is constantly changing; periods of rapidly rising demand and escalating prices typically are followed by slack demand and falling prices. The expected return for each dollar invested in fertilizer is a major factor in determining how much P the farmer will purchase and apply. Phosphate fertilizer use in the United States has increased continually over the past 30 years. Tracing the use pattern over time shows the relationship of fertilizer consumption to world grain price levels. In the period of depressed wheat prices on the world market of the late 1960's, fertilizer use fell sharply in the Western Provinces, where wheat is the major crop. As in the United States, the consumption of P fertilizers in Western Europe has increased steadily since 1961-1962.