China’s Reform Puzzle

Structural reform lies in the heart of the debate on China’s economic future. The Middle Kingdom’s rapid economic growth since economic reform started in 1978 has created admiration, fears and envy about its development. Many people even think that a rising Chinese economic power might eclipse the US within a decade or so, if its current growth rate persists. Whether one takes a benign or cynical view on China, the most crucial factor that decides its future growth is economic reform. Here, mixed signals have confused many observers. Some see a total lack of reform incentive, and argue for an eventual collapse of the Chinese system under the increasing weight of economic imbalances. Others, while sanguine, are puzzled by China’s snail-pace reform despite a strong push from the central authorities. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.