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2014•Abstract of Business Strategy and Social SciencesRequires access

The Forecasting of Wheat Yield Using ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Method in Libya

Said Yousif Khairi

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Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to make forecasting of wheat yield . ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins)was used for this goal because the ARIMA model is stochastic model, the results were more acceptable than other model . the results show that the model for forecasting was ARIMA (2,1,0)and residual analysis indicates the model was acceptable for forecasting. The results show the forecasts of yield had minimum error, and confidence interval had been plotted.

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What this paper is about

The main purpose of this study was to make forecasting of wheat yield . ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins)was used for this goal because the ARIMA model is stochastic model, the results were more acceptable than other model . the results show that the model for forecasting was ARIMA (2,1,0)and residual analysis indicates the model was acceptable for forecasting. The results show the forecasts of yield had minimum error, and confidence interval had been plotted.

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Available abstract

The main purpose of this study was to make forecasting of wheat yield . ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins)was used for this goal because the ARIMA model is stochastic model, the results were more acceptable than other model . the results show that the model for forecasting was ARIMA (2,1,0)and residual analysis indicates the model was acceptable for forecasting. The results show the forecasts of yield had minimum error, and confidence interval had been plotted.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Box–Jenkins, Residual, Yield (engineering), Econometrics, Statistics, Interval (graph theory), Mathematics

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