Shield of blows or rubber dagger: an analysis of an operational concept for NATO after forward defense.

Changes in the European community in the last year are the most dramatic since the end of World War II. Political changes in the Soviet Union and emerging democratic movements in Eastern European countries signal the accelerated development of a new European, and world, order. Changes for NATO focus on an array of political, economic, and military issues. Within the context of this changing environment, the purpose of this monograph is to answer following the question: what is a viable operational concept for the conventional defense of NATO in the Central Region after forward defense? This monograph shows how forward defense made sense given the strategic situation, ends, means, ways, and risk of the Cold War era. Then, given the same criteria, this study identifies the need for a replacement operational concept. Next, requirements for NATO’s new operational concept are drawn from the analysis and measured against a possible replacement concept, resilient defense. Resilient defense is offered as a possible replacement operational concept. Resilient defense is a term given to a concept characterized by its flexibility, concept of belts for force disposition, multinational corps, and attempts to address NATO's changing environment. This study concludes that resilient defense can provide NATO a viable operational concept in a time of great transition and uncertainty. There are however shortcomings in the resilient defense operational concept which must still be addressed. Those issues include NATO’s potential out of area requirement, interoperability of multinational corps, and increased reliance on reserve forces. In light of forward defense’s obsolescence, NATO would benefit from adopting resilient defense or a like concept.