Uncertainty in estimating renewable energy utilisation potential: a case of solar thermal power generation in India

Estimation of renewable energy utilisation potential is important for identification of niche areas and prioritisation amongst different options. However, large variation in the potential estimates has been observed in different studies for the same renewable energy technology. This study is an attempt to analyse such a variation in the estimated potential for solar thermal power generation in India. From the analysis of three studies, it is found that the values of input parameters and the assumptions made substantially affect the estimated potential. The estimates of the utilisation potential depend upon the categories of wastelands selected, the chosen values of threshold DNI and wind speed as well as the criteria used for allocating suitable wastelands between solar photo-voltaic (PV) and thermal power generation. It is therefore critically important that reported values of renewable energy utilisation potential be interpreted and used with full cognisance of assumptions made and input parameters used in estimation.