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But what does ‘surprise’ consist of?

P. H. Vigor

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Abstract

We ought now to be able to embark on our final chapter; but still this question of surprise needs more elucidating. We have established the importance that the Russians ascribe to the subject; we have examined the ways in which they seem to be trying to achieve it; we have seen that surprise of itself is virtually useless, and that to have any military value it must swiftly and effectively be exploited. What we have not yet done, however, is to see what surprise consists of, and from there go on to establish whether a commander needs to surprise the enemy totally and completely, or whether a degree of partial surprise can ever be sufficient for his purposes. If the latter, then can we say how low a degree of surprise will suffice for the commander to be successful?

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What this paper is about

We ought now to be able to embark on our final chapter; but still this question of surprise needs more elucidating. We have established the importance that the Russians ascribe to the subject; we have examined the ways in which they seem to be trying to achieve it; we have seen that surprise of itself is virtually useless, and that to have any military value it must swiftly and effectively be exploited. What we have not yet done, however, is to see what surprise consists of, and from there go on to establish whether a commander needs to surprise the enemy totally and completely, or whether a degree of partial surprise can ever be sufficient for his purposes. If the latter, then can we say how low a degree of surprise will suffice for the commander to be successful?

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Available abstract

We ought now to be able to embark on our final chapter; but still this question of surprise needs more elucidating. We have established the importance that the Russians ascribe to the subject; we have examined the ways in which they seem to be trying to achieve it; we have seen that surprise of itself is virtually useless, and that to have any military value it must swiftly and effectively be exploited. What we have not yet done, however, is to see what surprise consists of, and from there go on to establish whether a commander needs to surprise the enemy totally and completely, or whether a degree of partial surprise can ever be sufficient for his purposes. If the latter, then can we say how low a degree of surprise will suffice for the commander to be successful?

Key concepts: Surprise, Adversary, Subject (documents), Value (mathematics), Computer science, Epistemology, Psychology, Computer security

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