The Probabilistic Nature of Extended-Range Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Tracks as a Factor in Forecasts of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

Abstract : The overall project goal is to assess the skill of the probabilistic nature of medium- and extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and track over the tropical WPAC. Skill is examined with respect to processes associated with forcing by various tropical circulation factors, which are hypothesized to be the largest contributor to low-frequency variation in tropical cyclone activity and track type. Then, the impact of tropical cyclone activity on the medium- and extended-range forecasts over midlatitude regions downstream of recurving tropical cyclones is examined. For this objective, it is hypothesized that the interaction of the tropical cyclone outflow with the midlatitude circulation impacts the potential for downstream blocking and potential development of high-impact weather.