Some perspectives on agricultural GHG mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to the impact of climate change/variability in vulnerable areas

It is generally agreed that agricultural activities contribute tn greenhouse gas (GHG) build up in the atmosphere which influences climate change and climate variability. Worldwide agriculture is responsible for about 13 percent of the total anthropogenic emissions. The scientific community has placed considerable efforts on developing ways to mitigate this effect through improvements in agricultural management practices. Improved management practices such as precision farming, implementation of less intensive tillage, changes in crop rotation, improved feed quality for better digestibility, improved manure handling, better water management of rice paddies, and biofuel/bioheat production are commonly employed as a means to mitigate GHG emissions. Even with all these mitigation measures, climate change is likely to have a wide range of effects on agricultural systems and we must adapt to these changes to ensure that agricultural production is not only maintained but is increased to support a growing world population. In some areas shifts in crop zones are expected, whereby cool season crops may be replaced by warm season crops and new cropping zones may open up for production. Most adaptation scenarios are likely to influence GHG emissions. Production of bioenergy crops, particularly lignocellulosic crops can, in some cases, provide a means to both mitigate net CO 2 emissions and adapt to a changing climate and world energy needs. There are numerous potential mitigation strategies to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture, but their effectiveness depends on climate, soil, and economic conditions which vary across regions. Process-based models can potentially act as a useful tool for examining the influence that climate change may have on mitigation and adaptation efforts. However, there are gaps in knowledge regarding processes that govern GHG emissions and much uncertainty regarding future trends in climate. In this paper the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model was used to investigate the influence that a changing climate might have on GHG emissions in agricultural systems. Results indicate that N 2 O emissions will be highly variable across different landscapes, and that net CO 2 emissions will generally increase, particularly in cooler regions. In regions with an average annual temperature of less than 10°C, enhanced soil carbon decomposition due to increased temperatures is expected to cause a loss of approximately 70 kg CO 2 ha -1 y -1 by 2100.