Road traffic safety trends until 2020 - A prognosis by Grey Systems Theory

Not only globally but also nationally road traffic safety is not a definitively solved problem. Although numbers of fatalities are low, about one person dies every two hours in German road traffic. The automotive industry as well as numerous actors involved in road transportation are undertaking different measures which should lead to Vision Zero in the long-term. Not every safety measure taken, technologically or socially, achieves the desired safety effect. This paper deals with the traffic safety prognosis depending on the technological development of vehicles. For this purpose, a method of time series analysis, here Grey Systems Theory, has been applied. This method produces a correlation and prognosis between the technological development in road transport and the time series of lightweight injured, seriously injured and killed people. The results show a continuing positive development in terms of the reduction in road fatalities; however, it is shown that the total number of accidents will increase overall. This implicates that the technological development achieves to reduce fatalities, but cannot reduce accident occurrence overall. Language: de