Developing Training Plans for the Forecasting Organization

Three most important pillars of success in any business are people, processes and systems... to succeed in the forecasting function one needs, among other things, understanding of,supply chain concepts, knowledge of various forecasting models and software, and personal and interpersonal skills ... training program should be such which recognizes the constraints of time, money and energy. That is the biggest challenge facing business today? While it is impossible to find a single answer, I find a common thread, which is, finding, keeping, and developing people. In interacting with people in many companies through conferences, teaching classes, and in the normal course of business, it seems the shortage of people may be reaching critical levels, particularly in some areas of expertise and geographic locations. For those of us in forecasting, the explosion in the forecasting function means that the demand for people in this discipline is growing faster than the supply. While the answer for an individual company to fill such a position maybe to steal a person from another company, but it neither solves the global problem nor provides a long-term solution. KEY CHALLENGES Businesses face many challenges, some are common and others are unique. Some common ones can be highlighted by the following questions: How do we develop accurate forecasts and then ensure they are utilized throughout the How do we positively impact corporate performance? How do we keep up with increasing expectations of shareholders, customers, and management? While the answers to these questions may vary from one expert to another, failing to address them will surely prove disastrous. The development of a forecasting organization and a forecasting training program can certainly help us to provide answers to these questions. SKILLS NEEDED FOR A FORECASTING FUNCTION Before doing anything each forecasting organization must carefully outline and analyze its forecasting philosophy, definition of what constitutes success, and what critical skills are needed at every organizational level. In my view there are three critical components of a successful business: people, processes, and systems. This article is concerned with people and how they can be best skilled in the forecasting function. To state it another way, What are the critical skills necessary to ensure that the forecasting function is adding value and playing a critical role in our organization? I will propose a model which can be useful to practitioners. As with any function, people in forecasting face many challenges, rewards, and frustrations. One of the greatest frustrations is that forecasts aren't used consistently throughout organization. We often hear complaints that Operations doesn't use our forecast, Purchasing does its own forecast, or Finance ignores our numbers. While some of the reasons have to do with human nature (which I won't try to evaluate) or organizational dynamics (which is outside of the scope of this article), I would argue that one of the reasons for these complaints is that forecasters may be technically proficient but less than optimally in areas such as process management and persuasiveness. These skills are important but get little or no attention in the forecasting literature. I will suggest that we should take a much broader approach to training and developing our forecasting staff. BIONIC FORECASTER The first step to develop a training plan, for an individual or a forecasting organization, is to outline the characteristics of a Bionic Forecaster, for a particular company or business unit. Of course, no one is likely to have all these characteristics but they will provide a benchmark for a company. They will also provide a basis for doing a analysis, that is, the gap between what people working in this function should have and what they actually have. …