Residential energy conservation strategies

An engineering-economic model of residential energy use is used to evaluate the energy impacts from 1975 to 2000 of changes in household formation, housing choices, per capita income, fuel prices, equipment efficiencies, and thermal integrities of new and existing residential buildings. Twelve cases were run with the computer model to determine the impacts on energy use of each factor. These runs suggest the following: residential energy use will grow more slowly (at 2.5%/yr) during the fourth quarter of this century than during the third quarter (3.6%/yr) because of slower growth in population and household formation, changes in fuel price trends, and near saturation of equipment ownership for the major residential energy end uses; this high forecast is not a likely forecast because it assumes constant fuel prices at 1975 levels, rapid increases in household formation, and preferences for single-family units - with more realistic assumptions energy use grows at 1.5%/yr, suggesting that energy use will grow at half its historical rate if no new government programs and policies are implemented, and that a great deal of energy will be ''conserved'' because of projected changes in demographic conditions and increases in fuel prices; the implementation of energy conservation programs to raise energy prices, increase efficiency of new household equipment, and improve thermal integrity of both new and existing housing units can have significant energy impacts. A vigorous conservation program might yield an average annual growth rate of 0.4% between 1975 and 2000, with an energy use in 2000 only 10% higher than 1975 energy use. Implementation of such programs would reduce energy use in 2000 from the business as usual case by almost 25%; the reduction relative to the high case is 40%.