Will Tertiary Industry Become the Driving Force of China’s Economic Growth

This paper analyzed the intrinsic motivation of industrial structural evolution of developed countries since the World War II and the contribution of tertiary industry when their economy is equivalent to China’s in current stage.The author believed that the continuous rising proportion of tertiary industry is mainly due to the fast price rising instead of real output increase.When equivalent to China’s economic development level,the proportion of tertiary industry of the U.S.and Japan keeps rising,with contribution rate exceeds 60%.This paper analyzed China’s industrial structure since 1978 and believed that there is a big difference in industrial structure when calculated respectively in constant price and current price.From 1978 to 2009,when calculated by current price,industrial structure transferred from primary industry to tertiary industry,while from primary industry to secondary industry when calculated by constant price.The secondary industry has been the driving force of China’s economic growth since 1978 with a contribution rat of 68.8%.Calculations of this paper show that the secondary industry will remain the major power of economic growth until 2020,and tertiary industry is not likely to be the momentum of China’s economic growth.A rise in the proportion of the tertiary industry is insignificant to real economic growth,therefore it should not be the focus of industrial upgrading,instead,efforts should be made to enhance the international competitiveness of China’s secondary industry.