Modified early warning score for prediction of disease condition and prognosis of trauma patients in intensive care unit

Objective To access the possibility and practicability of modified early warning score(MEWS) in predicting the condition and prognosis of trauma patients in intensive care unite(ICU).Methods Totally 190 ICU trauma patients were retrospectively investigated in this study.The medical records were reviewed and MEWS were made for each patient.The duration was from they entered ICU till they were transfered out of ICU.The correlation of MEWS with traumatic condition and prognosis and its value were statistically analyzed.Results There was positive correlation between MEWS and the severity of trauma and prognosis(r=0.659 and 0.441,both P0.01).The MEWS had moderate predictive capability on the prognosis of trauma patients in ICU.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROCC) was 0.764(95%CI: 0.695-0.833,P0.01),the best cutoff score was 5,the sensitivity was 88.10%,and the specificity was 51.20%.The AUROCC of acute physiology and chronic health score(APACHSⅡ) was 0.810(95%CI: 0.744-0.876,P0.01),the best cutoff score was 21,the sensitivity was 86.60%,and the specificity was 54.50%.Conclusion MEWS can be applied to quickly predict the severity and prognosis of trauma patients in ICU,and it also enables the dynamic observation of patient condition.(Shanghai Med J,2011,34: 728-730)