Analysis of the Climate Change and Abrupt Change in the Manas River Drainage Basin in Recent 60 Years

[Objective and Method]Global climate change is the gravest environmental problem that human has ever faced.The climate change in China is similar to global change but is most significant in its arid land.Xinjiang is among the most eminent arid region.In this study,the Manas River Valley,which is the typical inland river formed from glacier - melted water in the Central Asia,was chosen as the sample.The temperature and precipitation change trend from 1956 to 2010 were analyzed by using linear regression analysis and Man - Kendall trend text.[Result]The results show the mean climate generally trended to be warm and humid in recent 60 years,and the rate of increase were 0.44℃/10 a and 12.6 mm/10a;The temperature trend rates of spring,summer,autumn and winter respectively were 0.50℃/10 a,0.21℃/10 a,0.52℃/10 a,0.52℃/10 a,and the precipitation trend rate were 2.44 mm/10 a,3.22 mm/10 a,2.76 mm/10 a,3.64 mm/10 a.The mean annual temperature of the Basin revealed a obvious increasing trend in 1980s.The point of abrupt change was in 1989,and the difference seasonal abrupt change of annual average temperature occurred in 1995,1986,1996 and 1987,respectively.The annual precipitation abrupt change also occurred in the late 1980s,and the points of abrupt change in autumn and winter occurred increased at 1983 and 1997, but there were not abrupt changes in spring and summer.[Conclusion]The findings are meaningful for us to have a comprehensive understanding of the climate change to predict the annual and seasonal climate change in the arid land.