Analysis on the Replacement Rate Model of Basic Pension and Change Considerations

In the paper, on the basis of the current pension, we build the Logistic salary model by on- the- job worker average wage data form the 1978 to 2010 of Zhengzhou city, so that we can predict the future wages, and also build the Pension replacement rate model.furthermore, we calculate, analysis and evaluation the model of Pension replacement rate by the retirement age and the different capture expends fixed number of year, The simulation results show that the future pension replacement rate along with the trend of economic growth will decline, to around 2045 is expected to stability, finally give the policy advice to prevent excessive replacement rate reduce.