Study on the State of Cultivated Land and Its Sustainable Use in Shandong Provinces

According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels,the trend of cultivated land change,the spatial difference,and the driving forces of cultivated land change in Shandong province in recent years are discussed in this paper.The total area of arable land and per capital availability is reducing.The trend of decrease will continue with the development of economy and increase of population.The change has relatively regional differences.As a result of the principal component analysis and correlation analysis,the eight driving force variables affecting arable land changes are analyzed,which could be classified into three types: the dynamic development of economy,progress of science and technology in agriculture and pressure of the population system.By using regressive multianalysis equation and per demand for foodstuff,along with population growth and economic development,the prediction and the minimum demand for cultivated land in Shandong province are done till the year 2020.Finally,the article advances some advice for the sastainable use of the cultivated land.