Study on the Method of Forecasting Forecast Skill Based on Support Vector Machine

On the basis of the diagnostic analysis of 500 hPa height's initial analysis field and forecast field data of T213l31 model of National Meteorological Center(Beijing),forecast skill,namely anomaly correlation coefficient of cases has been carefully surveyed using statistic method.After finding out the features,rules and correlation factors for the change forecast skill,we research its changing mechanism primarily.Considering the complexity of the atmosphere's space-time change,we design models based on Support Vector Machine for different seasons,respectively.The above-mentioned results show: the forecast values can preferably reflect the forecast skill's change trend.It proves that using SVM to forecast the forecast skill is feasible and significant.