Quantitative analysis of the factors influencing CO_2 emissions from final energy consumption in Shanghai

A quantitative analysis of the major factors influencing the CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Shanghai based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method was presented.Besides the CO2 emissions from industrial energy consumption,the emissions from urban household energy use were also considered in the analysis.The major factors influencing the CO2 emissions including energy intensity,energy and industrial structure,economic growth,and urban population were thus identified and adopted as the parameters for the LMDI method.The results show that the actual CO2 emissions in Shanghai increased 29.49 million ton from 2005 to 2009.If no reduction approaches were employed,the incensement of the emissions induced by the economic and population growth would be about 2.5 times of the actual value in Shanghai.The decline in energy intensity,energy structure adjustment,and industrial structure adjustment were the major determinants for the CO2 emissions reduction,and the contribution rates of the three factors were-98%,-50%,and-22%,respectively.Comparing with the period of 2000~2005,energy intensity decline and energy structure adjustment as the driving forces of CO2 emissions reduction weakened.At the same time,the industrial structure adjustment began to benefit the CO2 emissions reduction whereas the contribution rate was still small.The increasing per capita urban household energy use with the population growth was the major factor on the rise of CO2 emissions,and the contribution rate increased gradually.