Deformation Prediction of Dam Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis-Markov Chain Model

The prediction accuracy of dam deformation is a difficult problem.In this paper,the advantages of stepwise regression analysis and Markov chain are integrated.Firstly,the stepwise regression model is used to analyze the dam observation data and get the regression equation.And then,the validity and accuracy of the regression equation is determined.At the same time,Markov chain was applied to determine the state transition probability matrix of displacement series.By classifying the state of residual error and modifying absolute and relative errors between measured values and fitting values,a new dam deformation prediction model named as stepwise regression analysis-Markov chain model is proposed.The example of application results show that the dam deformation measured values are in good agreement with the predicted results,which indicates that the stepwise regression analysis-Markov chain model is valid and it can be used for dam deformation prediction analysis and early-warning monitoring.