Probability Analysis Model and Risk Assessment of Power System Cascading Failure

According to physical process during the occurrence and development of cascading failure and combining with the probabilistic characters of various stages of the event, a probabilistic analysis method for power network cascading failure is established by which the detailed probabilistic description to various links of cascading failure can be conducted. By means of simulating cascading failure process, the indices such as voltage out of limit and occurrence of isolated load etc. are adopted to perform risk assessment of cascading failure to find the vulnerable spot of power system. Applying the simulation and risk assessment software for power system cascading failure, which is programmed based on the above-mentioned theory, to IEEE 39-bus test system, the reasonableness of the proposed probabilistic analysis model and risk assessment method is validated.