The Study of Macro-financial Risk of Chinese Real Estate Industry——From Financial Stability Perspective

The macro-financial risk of real estate industry means the systematic financial risk.The study of the macro-financial risk of real estate industry primarily talks about whether there will be systematic crisis.In this article,the method of contingent balance sheet analysis and the data for real estate listed companies have been used to discuss the macro-financial risk of real estate industry.Three major conclusions have been made.The first one is the risk for real estate industry of China has increased since 2001 and the adjustment of 2008 real estate market released the risk.The situation of macro-financial risk in real estate market has improved since 2009.The second is that the real estate price bubble index does not effectively indicate the macro-financial risk of real estate industry.The third one is that the risk of real estate industry of China was affected by the real estate price and bank credit.This study indicates that to maintain the stability of real estate industry,real estate price has to be kept at an appropriate level.Real estate price should neither be extremely high or low,otherwise it will increase the macro-financial risk of real estate industry.