Factors Decomposition and Trend Analysis of Energy Consumption in China

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) is applied to research the growth of energy consumption in China from 1997 to 2007.The factors of energy consumption growth could be resolved into four effects: population effect,production effect,industrial structure ef fect and industrial energy intensity effect.The results indicate that,the main reason of energy consumption growth in China during 1997 and 2007 is production effect,which accounts for 116.68%,and it presents obvious growth trend.The influence of population effect and industrial structure effect are much smaller.The reduction of industrial energy intensity is the main reason of slowing down the growth of total energy consumption,and the slowing trend is strengthened;the energy efficiency in China is improving continuously.The industrial structure adjust ment should be strengthened,and the energy efficiency should be improved sequentially in premise of keeping the development of population and production by predicting and analyzing the developing trend of these four effects.