A Modified Water Breakthrough Time Prediction Formula for Low-permeability Bottom Water Reservoirs with Barrier

The main problem of bottom water reservoir development is water coning,it is very important to predict accurately the oil well water breakthrough time which can provide basis for reasonable development scheme for reservoir. Based the water coning and low-permeability non-Darcy seepage principle,considered the coning of bottom water vertical seepage and the radial flow along the barrier,the prediction formula of water breakthrough time of low permeability bottom water reservoir with barrier was derived. For low permeability bottom water reservoir with barrier,because of considering the influence of the starting pressure gradient and stress sensitivity factors,the calculated water breakthrough time is larger than that without considering the above factors. Through the actual calculation of oil wells in Erdos Basin,the prediction water breakthrough time is close to the actual. The formula can provide reference and guidance for predicting such wells water breakthrough time accurately.