Short Term Prediction for Occurrence Probability of Expressway Traffic Incidents

A model is proposed to estimate the probability of traffic incidents occurrence,which is achieved by analyzing the real time traffic flow data from two neighboring traffic detectors.The proposed model indicates that the probability of traffic incident occurrence is positively related to the ratio of the upstream traffic density to the steady traffic density,and the speed difference between the upstream traffic and the downstream traffic.The model only need to use the basic traffic data can be estimated probability of the occurrence of traffic and highway management in the greater value.