Quantitative analysis of dynamic change and its driving force of Nan County arable land

The factors affecting arable land quantity change are complex, and only a single regression analysis is not able to attain a satisfactory model. Based on previous studies, and taking Nan County of Hunan Province as a case, firstly principal component analysis was conducted to choose the major influencing factors to overcome multicollinearity problems; then a regression model for the chosen factors was established, thereby quantitative analysis of the impact of the factors that affected the quantity changes of arable land was conducted, and it was concluded that there were four main types of factors of driving force for quantity changes of Nan County arable land: economic development, population increase, government policies and agricultural intensification. And it was pointed out that not only the government policies could be relied on as the means to resolve the issue of farmland protection, but also the measures combining economic, institutional and technological factors were need to achieve the goal of protecting arable land.