SLEUTH model-based prediction of urban growth of Shanghai

In this paper,SLEUTH model and the urban land use datasets in 1989-2005 derived from high spatial resolution(2.5 m) color-infrared aerial photos of Shanghai were employed to simulate the urban growth of the City in 2006-2035 under four land resources protection scenarios,as well as the effects of urbanization on the urban landscape pattern.Under the four land resources protection scenarios,the areas of different urban land use types all kept increasing,but the increments decreased with increasing protection degree.The main urban growth type was the edge expansion of existing urban area,followed by the diffusive growth and road-influenced growth in suburban areas.The future urban growth would mainly occur in the northwestern part of Shanghai,and then in the southwestern and southeastern parts.Urbanization would affect the urban landscape pattern markedly.At the early stage of the urbanization,it could induce landscape fragmentation,landscape diversification,and the increase of landscape heterogeneity;while at the late stage,urbanization could decrease the urban landscape diversity and heterogeneity,and result in urban landscape homogenization.To increase the protection degree of agricultural land and urban green space could mitigate the decline of urban landscape diversity and heterogeneity,and hence,avoid the urban landscape homogenization.