Research on the future earthquake situation of China mainland after the earthquake of the West of the Kunlun Mountain pass

On the basis of the dynamics background and the activity situation of strong earthquakes, we researches on the active trend of strong earthquakes of China mainland and its each subordinate land blocks in many angles. The results show that the earthquake of the West of the Kunlun Mountain pass with magnitude 81 on November 14, 2001 is not the last earthquake of the fifth strong earthquake recurrence. In future one to three years, a few earthquakes with M≥70 in China mainland, especially in Qingzang land block, will occur to adjust the regional stress field. The area from the border of Qinghai, Xizang and Sichuan to the middle of Sichuan is a key risk area where an earthquake with M 70 is likely to occur.