Interdecadal Variations of Summer Precipitation and a Short-Term Climate Prediction Model in Flood Period of Sichuan and Chongqing

Using the observed monthly precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature(SST) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis value data,the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in the flood period of Sichuan and Chongqing was investigated,and a short-term climate prediction model was built.The results indicate that the principal modes of summer precipitation are different during the different periods.The homogenous of precipitation anomalies is the most important mode since early 1990s.A short-term climate prediction model was built by using the prediction factors: SST in equator center-east Pacific,magnitude of zonal wind in North Atlantic,intensity of Polar Vortex in Northwest Pacific and intensity of East-Asian trough.The performance of the model is better based on the test from 2002 to 2007.The interdecadal variations of principal modes of summer precipitation and its predicting factors contribute to the variation of the model prediction abilities.