Presidential Survival and the Impeachment Process: Colombia in Comparative Perspective *

Under what conditions are presidents capable of surviving an impeachment process? This paper compares the impeachments of Presidents Ernesto Samper of Colombia (1996) and William J. Clinton of the United States (1999). We argue that important similarities related to the nature of the scandals, public support for the president, and executive-legislative politics account for the survival of both presidents in office. The first section of this paper shows that the Colombian procedure for impeachment emulates the American Constitution. In the second section we analyze the nature of the scandals that triggered the accusations against Samper and Clinton. The third part of the paper traces the evolution of presidential favorability during the two administrations. Section four deals with the congressional politics of impeachment. In the final section we test our argument by looking at other cases in Latin America or the US in which, in contrast to Samper or Clinton, the president confronted a scandal but a) impeachment never took place or b) the president was removed from office. We conclude that our theory of presidential survival works in developing countries with weakly institutionalized systems as well as in well-established presidential democracies.