Structural Sensitivity Analysis of Accident Causation in Complex Social-technical System

The limitations of the idea of the common cause hypothesis are systematically discussed as follows:(1)neglecting the impact of system complexity,and supposing simple and complex systems follow the same mechanism of accident causation;(2)common causes hypothesis,that is,minor or serious accidents have the same causes and follow common causes path;(3)hypothesis of causality,that is,any accident can be traced by a clear strict cause-effect chain;(4)just focusing on the important factors,artificially increasing the system disharmony.Then,the structural sensitivity of the accidents occurring in the complex systems is expounded.The value criteria for judging the effectiveness of the accident causation models is given.Accidents causation theory of complex social-technical systems based on the combination of the behavior deflection of the active elements and deflection of interactions between active elements is put forward.Reason's Swiss Cheese model is supplemented and perfected,and new accidents causation model based on the structural sensitivity is formulated.