Trend of esophageal cancer mortality in residents of Shandong province from 1970 to 2005

Objective To analyze the trend of esophageal cancer mortality based on death monitoring data from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong province.Methods All-cause mortality data between 1970 and 2005 were collected.Then crude mortality rate of esophageal cancer and standardized mortality rates by the percentages of Chinese population in 1964 and world population in 1976 were calculated.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the fluctuation and long-term trend of standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer.Results In general,the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer declined in the period of 1970-2005.Joinpoint analysis showed that the annual change velocity of the standardized mortality rate by the percentages of world population in 1976 was-0.61%(P 0.05),2.33%(P 0.05),and-1.42%(P 0.05) in periods of 1970-1987,1987-1990,and 1990-2005,respectively.The mortality rate increased with the increase of age and was higher in females than in males at all age groups.Conclusion The standardized mortality of esophageal cancer in residents of Shandong province descended on the whole during 1970-2005 and the trend was similar to that of high esophageal cancer areas.It is necessary to study the influencing factors to decrease the incidence of esophageal cancer.