On the Thought of the Expected Trend of RMB Exchange Rate

As for a gloomy economic recovery future and easier monetary policy formulated by America and Europe,the USD continue to depreciate significantly against major currencies.The US-led developed countries think that China is weak in the competitive in foreign trade because exchange rate for RMB is underestimated.Therefore,the RMB rate is facing greater external pressure for appreciation.Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate restart,The trend of RMB revaluation is clear,the width of fluctuation is growing.Favorable balance of trade is not the reason for RMB revaluation,the US trade deficit is the result of international division in the condition of economic globalization.The status of U.S.dollar in international currency and strict export control measures to China are the most important causes of U.S.trade deficit,the appreciation of RMB has no help to solve the U.S.trade deficit and domestic employment.The future trend of RMB exchange rate is based on U.S.dollars.The macroeconomic trends in China is the main driving force of the RMB exchange rate,the current new round of RMB appreciation is lack of inherent momentum,it is unlikely for RMB to have significant appreciation,but it still has space for moderate appreciation.