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On RMB Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Based on Montiel Model

XU Si-xing

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Abstract

This paper selects the basic economic factors based Montiel's theoretical model,referring to the relevant researches at home and aboard,by sampling the data from 1980 to 2006 to construct RMB equilibrium exchange rate model.Through the cointegration analysis,this paper finds RMB was undervalued during the period and concludes that the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB should be dynamic by pegging to a basket of currencies,which provides a good method to reflect the real and effective fluctuation of RMB.

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What this paper is about

This paper selects the basic economic factors based Montiel's theoretical model,referring to the relevant researches at home and aboard,by sampling the data from 1980 to 2006 to construct RMB equilibrium exchange rate model.Through the cointegration analysis,this paper finds RMB was undervalued during the period and concludes that the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB should be dynamic by pegging to a basket of currencies,which provides a good method to reflect the real and effective fluctuation of RMB.

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Available abstract

This paper selects the basic economic factors based Montiel's theoretical model,referring to the relevant researches at home and aboard,by sampling the data from 1980 to 2006 to construct RMB equilibrium exchange rate model.Through the cointegration analysis,this paper finds RMB was undervalued during the period and concludes that the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB should be dynamic by pegging to a basket of currencies,which provides a good method to reflect the real and effective fluctuation of RMB.

Key concepts: Renminbi, Exchange rate, Cointegration, Economics, Construct (python library), Econometrics, Monetary economics, Computer science

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