Research on urban economic development and protection scale of farmland:A case study of Xi′an City

Aim To predict farmland protection scale in order to satisfy urban economic development.Methods Multiple objective prediction method.Results The first scenario is based on the urban food security.The demand of farmland in Xi′an would be 2 653.17 km2 and 2 925.12 km2 in 2010 and 2020 respectively.The second scenario is based on the analysis of influence factors for the farmland change including agriculture structural adjustment,ecological deforest,occupying the farmland by construction,land development,land arrangement and land reclamation.The demand of farmland in Xi′an would be 3 164.10 km2 and 3 042.03 km2 in 2010 and 2020 respectively.Through synthesizing the above scenarios,the protection scale of farmland in Xi′an would be between 2653.17and 3164.10 km2 in 2010 and be between 2 925.12 km2 and 3 042.03 km2.Conclusion Suggestions,such as eschancing productivity of farmland,confining the scale of ocalpying the farmland,and so on,were put forward.