Review on the quantitative analysis of the domino effect risk assessment

The paper presents the results of study to investigate and propose means of assessing the potential risk for a domino interaction between equipments/groups of sites. Domino effect,complex phenomena,is a well-known cause of severe accidents in the processing industry,and one accident may cause another accident in other installations nearby,and/or leading to a series of accidents. The probability of domino effect like accidents has been increased due to the adverse impacts of the increasing congestion in industrial complexes and ever-increasing density of human population around such industrial complexes. Trying to identify the mechanism of the domino effect escalation,the paper has made a thorough investigation of the likely effective approaches to assessing the inter-site escalation and associated damage criteria. In addition,we have also surveyed the likely factors relevant to domino escalation and various liabilities leading to a domino event. Although a number of articles can be found to review likely domino effects,no one can be said to provide an overall coherent approach. It is for this reason that the paper has proposed definitions and analyses of notions related to the domino effects. In addition,factors relevant to domino effects and potential causes likely to result domino accidents have also been discussed. Moreover,we are brave enough to develop a methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by domino effects in industrial environment. The methodology is based on the models of fire and explosion damage when processing equipment and facilities due to the different escalations,prohibit functions and the quantitative risk analysis techniques,with the probability of domino events and the corresponding consequences calculated. With diagrams of individual risk and F-N societal risk curves drawn,the present study can be expected to be conducive to the safety assessment and successful prevention of such accident.