Simulation of Snowmelt Runoff in the Region of Yarkan River Based on SWAT Model

In order to study the characteristics of snowmelt runoff in Yarkan area of Xinjiang,the distributed hydrological model SWAT was used to simulate the snowmelt runoff. The remote sensing data was used to get the snow covering information of the study area. The resolution of 1km × 1km land use data,DEM data and soil data were collected to build the geographic information database of the SWAT model and the monthly meteorological,hydrological observation data during the period of 1998- 2012 of the Kaqun Hydrological Station in the Yarkan River were used to validate the SWAT model. On the basis of the simulated snowmelt runoff during the period of 1998- 2012,by setting different climate change scenarios( assuming that the temperature ± 2℃,precipitation change),the impact of different climate change scenarios on the snowmelt runoff in the study area was quantitatively analyzed. The research results show that the model is suitable for snowmelt runoff simulation in the study area,the relative errors of annual runoff simulation are less than 10% during the model parameters and validation of periodic,and the uncertainty coefficient is 0. 8 or more,SWAT model can meet the accuracy requirements of the study area; while temperature rises 2 ℃,the snowmelt runoff will be increased; while the rainfall increase or decrease will directly result in the increasing of the snowmelt runoff.