Research on the Change of Chinese Fertility Level and the Route Choice of Population Development

On the comprehensive analysis of the population survey and scholars' research after 1990,this paper holds the idea that the external policy and Chinese economic growth both have a strong effect on the low birth rate.The real fertility level is neither as low as the result of population survey(less than 1.5),nor as high as the imagination of government and related departments.The investigation shows that rural residents' fertility desire is not more than two children,which is the basic of the birth rate on a sustainable and stable level.It is well known that in order to ensure the population growth on a stable and sustainable level,the fertility rate should remain on the replacement level,or at least close to the replacement level.Considering the rule of population development and social development,and the fact that people's fertility desire and fertility keep going low,we should seize the chance of the adjustment on fertility policy,which should be finished in 5-10 years.