2012•Water Resources and PowerRequires access

Analysis of Cost Development Trend of Photovoltaic Power Generation in China Based on Learning Curve

Lihui Sui

Abstract

This paper presents the development trend of photovoltaic power generation in China.Based on the learning curve model,constant learning rates and stage learning rates are adopted to analyze the development trend of photovoltaic power generation unit cost.And the learning cost of PV power generation achieved commercial operation is estimated.Then it predicts that the cost of PV power generation in 2020 is expected to match the traditional fossil fuels and will be realized the large-scale commercial operation stage.

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Key concepts: Photovoltaic system, Electricity generation, Learning curve, Fossil fuel, Power (physics), Environmental science, Environmental economics, Computer science