The Government Behavior in the Loss of Cultivated Land and the Performance of Preserving Farmland in China

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the government-driven mechanism affecting the reduction of cultivated land and the performance for the cultivated land protected by governments in China.The integrated curve estimation model and the gray series model are employed to study the total cultivated land change process during 1983 and 2006,and predict the change tendency from 2010 to 2020.A comprehensive method was used to analysis the governments' behavior how to result to reducing the total cultivated land in the driving role and their responsibility for protecting the arable land.The results indicate:in 2020 the total cultivated land may be lower than the Red Line.The Governments should have been inescapable responsibility for the arable reduced land.