Empirical Analysis of Factors that Affect China's Provincial Tertiary Industry Development

Based on data of the development of tertiary industry of 31 provinces and cities in mainland China from 2004 to 2010,using the Granger causality test and stepwise regression,a multivariate model and a double logarithmic model were established that can identify the determinants in the development of China's tertiary industry,by selecting the best explanatory variables.The conclusion is that regional difference in economic development is the main factor causing the uneven development of China's tertiary industry;and the tertiary industry's increases are sensitive to the number of legal entity of tertiary industry and the level of urbanization.