Evaluation of Model for End-stage Liver Disease Score as a Prognostic Predictor in Patients with Chronic Severe Hepatitis B

Objective To investigate the predicting the prognosis of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD and MELD-Na) of chronic severe hepatitis B under chemotherapy.Method 42 cases of chronic severe hepatitis B were sellected, and the MELD and MELD-Na scores were calculated at the day of admission, and 1, 2 and 3 weeks after hospitalization.The calculation lasted for 3 months, and the validity of the model was determined by means of the concordance(c)statistic.Results The c-statistic of MELD was 0.728 and 0.731 for MELD-Na at the day of admission.Both of the c-statistic was 0.883 at 1 week later. The optimal cut-off values predicting the prognosis of patients at 1 week after adnission for MELD was 26.14 and 29.02 for MELD-Na.Conclusion MELD or MELD-Na score could relatively predict the short-term prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis B. The predictive capability of MELD at 1 week after admission is better than the day of admission.