Risk Assessment of Cascading Failures Basing on Operating Conditions

Failures in power system are rare happened but often bring severe consequences.Severe cascading failures may cause large scale blackouts or even system collapse.This article presents an approach to evaluate the risk of cascading failures.Firstly,by the approach to determine lines failure probabilities based on the real-time power flow of lines;secondly,to simulate the general expansion process of cascading failures by AHP and DGI cascading failures models;thirdly,to associate the occurrence probability of cascading failures with their consequences,then a quantitative risk index is proposed by which the hidden trouble of power system can be discovered and the potential safety hazard can be revealed.At last,by exemplified IEEE-RTS system the simulation result validates the effectiveness of the proposed method.