Can Urbanization Necessarily Promote Economic Growth?——An Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model of 19 Countries

Urbanization is a necessary course during economic development,but can urbanization really promote the economic growth? This paper choose 19 countries which have relatively fast urbanization development after the World War Ⅱ,build a panel data model,explore the relationship between urbanization and economic growth by CointegrationTest,Granger Causality Test and Panel- data VAR model. Research found that there is a stable long-term relation between urbanization and economic growth. Economic growth is the cause of the urbanization,but urbanization is not the cause of the economic growth. It shows a weak positive correlation between them,and the degree they can explain to each other is extremely low. This paper holds the view that it is impossible to boost economic development solely by using urbanization as a policy instrument. One hand,from the experience of developing countries in Latin American,urbanization unmatched with economic performance may cause a high risk of falling into dilemma; on the other hand,economic development in advanced countries is mainly based on technical progress and capital accumulation,while urbanization is a result of economic development. This paper also puts forward relevant suggestions on Chinese new-type urbanization.