2011•Jingji lilun yu jingji guanliRequires access
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT,REAL ESTATE LOAN AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA
Weida Kuang
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Abstract
Using the database of 35 large and medium cities from 1996 through 2007 in China,this paper investigates the interplay between real estate investment,real estate loan and economic growth.The results show that the impact of the economic growth upon the real estate investment is greater than that of the latter upon the former.Thereby,the variation of the economic growth will give rise to the dramatic volatility of the real estate investment,but not vice versa.Secondly,the impact of the real estate purchasing on the economic growth is greater than that of real estate development investment.Meanwhile,the real estate loan is more important for the developers than for real estate purchasers.Thirdly,the impact of the economic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the latter on the former.Therefore,the decline of the economic growth will cause real estate loan crunch.Fourthly,the influence of the real estate investment on the economic growth is greater than that of the real estate loan,but the impact of the economic growth on the real estate loan is greater than that of the real estate investment.Therefore,the economic depression will cut down the real estate loan,but will have no effect on the real estate investment.Lastly,the impact of the real estate price on the real estate loan is greater than that of the economic growth and interest rate.Accordingly,the real estate price depreciation will depress the real estate loan and lead to default risk and financial crisis.This requires the government to prevent the real estate price from increase too sharply.