The Shock of A Century:The Causes and Prospect for the Political Change in the Arab World

e causes for the political change in the Arab World are long-term social and economic problems;slow process of democratization;the high rate of the youth in the total population;the rise of civil society;the social and economic problems in the Arab World are amplified in the background of globalization;the lack of independence in foreign policy of Arab countries;the influence of IT technology on political movements;the long-term propaganda for democracy and freedom in the West;the similarity of Arab countries.The characteristics of the present movement different from other three movements historically are as follow: the countries evolved,the political targets,connection with lower strata,simultaneity,the difference of forms.The countries evolved can be divided into 6 types in their process and prospects.The movement will have influence on the situation of Arab World and the direction of Arab League in the future,the relations between Arab World and Israel,Iran,the U.S.A.and Europe,the relations between Arab World and Russia.