Impact Assessment for Energy Taxation Policy Based on A Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Model

Energy tax,as a policy instrument to solve the energy-environmental problem,has been used in some developed countries and been proved to be effective.A computable general equilibrium(CGE) model is applied to quantitatively simulate the impact of energy tax scenarios.Social accounting matrix in 2002 as the benchmark data sets is set up.Solving the equations by the GAMS software and comparing the results with the baseline scenario,energy tax impact effects on Chinese economic system are predicted.The production of relevant sectors will be restrained and the output in the energy sector will decline.As a result,GDP will drop to a small extent.The demand for all energy sources will decrease,and the decreasing ratios for coal and natural gas are the largest,followed by petroleum.The change in demand for electricity is the lowest.The energy consumption per unit GDP will shrink.The share of oil and electricity in the total energy demand will increase,while coal and gas share will be lower.Energy tax can help to abate the carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions,with increasing marginal costs of emission reduction.Heavy industry sector and the power sector have the largest emission reduction potential.Energy tax could help to make factors of production shift from higher energy-intensive sectors to the lower ones,and this will promote the adjustment of industrial structure.The Hicksian equivalent variation estimation shows that,the households' welfare will suffer some loss,if not taking the environmental improvement into account.It is suggested that,energy tax should be applied in a step by step way to avoid the sharp impact on the economy and social welfare.At the same time,paralleled tax rebate for income tax should be taken to Green the tax system.